Economic Forecast

“Madison and Wall’s Brian Wieser, who previously managed GroupM’s ad forecasts, also raised his U.S. ad forecast for 2024 to 6.3%, up from the 5.6% he predicted in March.”

“According to Brian Wieser, principal at Madison and Wall, the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago… Yet, as Wieser noted, context matters. A 6.0% growth rate in the fourth quarter may appear anemic, but when stacked against Q4 2023’s 11.2% surge, the two-year trend is remarkably stable. The third quarter painted a similar picture: a 9.4% gain, cleanly building upon the previous year’s 7.9% growth. The lesson being that even in a cooling market, advertising remains a fundamentally resilient business.”

“Like a Marvel actor the night before his big shirtless scene, the ad market is ‘healthy and maybe unsustainably strong’ this year. Per the report, the advertising industry has enjoyed an unusual three consecutive quarter trend of near double-digit growth, including 9.6% growth in Q2 this year (not including political advertising)… But Wieser believes things will naturally decelerate in the back half and eventually level out to a more typical, mid-single-digit growth rate – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025.”

“It will reach $15.1 billion [in political ad spend] this year, compared with $14.1 billion in 2020, Wieser forecasts. With political spend incorporated, total advertising spend growth in the U.S. will amount to $384 billion in 2024.”

“The U.S. ad market, excluding political advertising investments, grew by 10.1% during this year’s first quarter, according to Wieser… The growth exceeded the 8% that Wieser had previously projected, leading him to project 6.7% second-quarter growth. Wieser expects that the first quarter’s outsized growth will dim by the end of the year, and decelerate to 4%.”

“U.S. advertising spending should grow 6.3% in 2024… Wieser expects total advertising spend will add up to $379 billion this year—excluding spending related to politics.”